When to Fold Pocket Queens
Rarely — but it happens. In 14 of the 3053 solved spots the solver folds queens at least 80 % of the time, and 13 of those are in the money. The pattern is the same every time: somebody opens from early position, somebody else raises, and pay jumps are on the line.
The number
14 out of 3053 is 0.5 %. So queens are nearly always a hand you play — the question is not whether you fold them, but how to recognise the exception. All 14 share three features:
| Feature | in how many of the 14 |
|---|---|
| An open AND a raise in front of you | 14 |
| In the money (pay jumps running) | 13 |
| Final table or close to it | 13 |
Why queens of all hands
Against a single open, queens are one of the best hands there is. Against an open and a raise from early seats the picture changes: the ranges still involved are aces, kings and ace-king. Against aces and kings queens are far behind; against ace-king they are a coin flip.
In a cash game that would still often be a call — a coin flip with dead money in the pot is decent business. In a tournament it is not: lose the flip and it costs you a pay jump, and a pay jump is money. That is the ICM effect in one sentence.
The counterpart makes it plain: in those very same spots ace-king offsuit shoves 90 % of the time. What decides is not how pretty your hand is, but what it is up against.
Where this answer stops
These 14 spots are exceptions, not a rule. If this article makes you start folding queens often, you have lost more than you gained: in the other 3039 spots queens are a hand you play, and in many of them a very good one.
All numbers here are preflop and for tournaments with a payout ladder.
You can play this hand right now
The home page has a three-hand sample, no account needed. The second of them is exactly this kind of spot: button, 30 big blinds, final table, an open and a raise in front of you — and you are dealt queens. The solver folds there 93 % of the time.