How Tight Do You Play the Bubble?
Tighter — but less than most people think. Facing an all-in, the solver continues on the bubble with 14.1 of 169 hands on average, and with 16.8 in the money. That is about 16 % apart: noticeable, but a long way from “on the bubble you fold everything”.
The number
| Situation | Hands that continue | Spots |
|---|---|---|
| on the bubble | 14.1 | 181 |
| far from the money | 14.4 | 44 |
| in the money | 16.8 | 942 |
“On the bubble” means here: at most 1.2 times the number of paid places is still in the tournament. Counted per spot is how many of the 169 hands mostly do not fold, then averaged. The middle row rests on only 44 spots — it is a hint, not a proof.
The surprise is in the middle row
Far from the money the solver plays just as tight as on the bubble — 14.4 against 14.1. That contradicts the feeling that you may be looser early in a tournament.
The reason is the same one ICM gives everywhere: while nothing has been won yet, a lost all-in costs everything that might still come. Only once the money is reached does everyone hold something — and can afford to risk part of it.
So the bubble is not a special case where you suddenly play tight. It is the place where you may not yet loosen up.
Where this answer stops
The average says nothing about stack sizes: a short stack on the bubble plays differently from a big one, and that is exactly where the gap is widest. Anyone who really wants to understand the bubble has to look at their own stack — that is a topic of its own.
All numbers are preflop, in tournaments with a payout ladder.